The Governor hiked Cash rate.

What Melbourne Cup Day told us about Australian property, and why the national story isn’t our story.

Melbourne Cup Day is the day the nation stops for two races. The one at Flemington, and the one at Martin Place.
The Flemington favourite ran its race. So did the Reserve Bank’s.

At 2:30pm, Governor Michele Bullock delivered the fifth rate rise of 2026. The cash rate is now 4.85 per cent. That’s a 25 basis point hike on top of September’s increase, and it takes borrowing costs to their highest level in 18 years. You’d have to go back to the global financial crisis to find a cash rate this high.

The commentary from brokers today is dominated by one line: “mortgage pain.” Fair enough. Each 25 basis point move adds roughly $15 to $16 in monthly repayments per $100,000 borrowed. On a $600,000 mortgage, that’s about $93 extra a month. On top of what’s already been added since February.

But here’s the detail most of the Tuesday afternoon write-ups are burying.

The dissent, and what it tells you

The vote was not unanimous. Six RBA board members voted to hike. Three voted to hold. That’s a split board, not a consensus board. More importantly, the line “the board is prepared to increase the cash rate target further if needed” has been dropped from the official statement. That phrase has been standard since the hikes resumed earlier this year. Its absence is the kind of thing economists circle in red pen.

Is it sensible to read into the absence of that line? Is today the top? If I’m wrong, there’s one hike left. If I’m right, the next move the RBA makes is a cut, and markets are pricing that for the second half of 2027.

The property story the papers love

Yesterday, Cotality published its October Home Value Index. The headline is doing laps on the news feeds this afternoon: Australia is now in its fastest property downturn in 40 years. National dwelling values fell 1.2 per cent in October. That’s seven consecutive months of falls. The national median is now $884,855, which is 6.7 per cent below the March peak. In dollar terms, that’s about $63,400 wiped off the median Australian home in seven months.

Brisbane led the fall at 2.0 per cent for the month, down 6.1 per cent over the quarter. Perth was next at 1.7 per cent. Sydney came in third at 1.6 per cent.

If you only read the headlines, you’d think the sky was falling on the entire country.

What the headlines miss

It isn’t.

Cotality’s own data separates the capital cities from the regional markets, and the two are telling different stories. The combined capitals are leading the national decline. The regions are still outperforming on an annual basis, even if the gap is narrowing.

That national average of a 1.2 per cent fall is a weighted number. Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane carry most of the weight. When they move, the national average moves with them. That doesn’t mean every suburb in every city or region is tracking the same line.

Rockhampton isn’t. And the data from our own office backs that up.

Last week, we logged 304 enquiries across the office. We ran 93 open homes. Our top inspection drew 18 groups through the door. Properties went unconditional at a steady pace, that’s not a market in retreat. No doubt our local market is feeling the headwinds from the capital cities, much in the same way we felt the up-lift on a rising market.

Why Rocky is running a different race

Two reasons.

First, affordability. The median house in Rockhampton still starts with a six. Investors and owner occupiers priced out of Brisbane and Sydney keep finding their way north. Interest rate pressure is real everywhere, but it hits a $450,000 loan very differently to a $1.2 million loan.

Second, yields. Rocky still delivers gross rental yields of  four to six per cent on entry-level homes. Compare that to Sydney, where gross yields sit near 1.7 per cent. When the capitals correct, the investor logic for cashflow-positive regions actually strengthens, not weakens.

What to do with this if you’re thinking of selling

Watch the national narrative. Then set it aside.

Price your property to the local reality, not the Melbourne headline. Buyers in Rocky are still buying. Enquiries are still landing. Open homes are still getting traction. If your property is presented well and priced to the market, it will sell.

If you’re waiting for conditions to improve, understand what you’re actually waiting for. A rate cut, if it comes, will land in late 2027. Spring 2026 is here now.

The Governor hiked. The capitals cracked. Rocky kept running.

That’s The Pulse.